Maybe I’m the last to actually pay attention to this story. Last night I watched the 2015 documentary, “Love and Sex in Japan”, linked below (free on Tubi). I’ve had a life long fascination with Japan… its gardens, architecture, Buddhist temples, philosophies, word meanings, and some of its polite traditions like generous gift giving and valuing of crafts. I’ve never been there, however. It’s also become more prominent in the news that the Western world isn’t replacing its population and there are many reasons for this, some of them definitely economic, some of it hedonism, some of it tech-induced inability to connect in real life. I think what is happening in Japan is a caution for the rest of us. Now that I’m older, as I look back on my life, I think the two children I’ve produced is my most important real legacy. It gives meaning to life, to being human. It’s the tangible thing I leave behind.
Yes, the core claims in the ~2015–2016 documentary Love and Sex in Japan were directionally true at the time and the underlying trends have generally continued or worsened. The film highlighted Japan’s plummeting birth rate, high rates of sexual inexperience (roughly a quarter of people under ~40 as virgins in some framings), and widespread sexlessness/abstinence from regular sex (around half the population in some surveys), linking them to broader social and economic factors. Current birth/fertility data (as of 2025 figures released in 2026)
Total fertility rate (TFR): Record low of 1.14 in 2025 (down from 1.15 in 2024). This is the lowest since records began in 1947 and far below the replacement level of ~2.1. Births: ~671,000 babies born to Japanese nationals in 2025 (a new record low, down ~15,000 from 2024; 10th straight year of decline). Including foreign nationals, preliminary figures were a bit higher earlier but still historically low. Births peaked at over 2.69 million in 1949. Deaths continue to far outnumber births (natural decline of ~900,000+ per year recently). Japan’s Japanese-citizen population has fallen below 120 million.
Tokyo’s TFR was especially low (~0.96); Okinawa was highest (~1.52). Marriages rose slightly for a second year (to ~489,000 in 2025) but remain low by historical standards. Average age at first marriage is around 31 for men and ~29.7 for women. Marriage and singlehood (especially relevant to millennials) Millennials in Japan roughly correspond to people born ~1981–1996 (now in their late 20s to mid-40s). Lifetime never-married rates (by age 50) have risen sharply:
2020 data: ~25–28% of men and ~16–18% of women never married by 50 (up from ~2–5% in 1980). Higher in urban areas like Tokyo. Unmarried rates by age group (2020 census patterns): Very high in the 20s (often 70–90%+ depending on exact cohort/sex), still substantial in the 30s (roughly 30–45%+ for men in their early 30s in earlier data, with continued rises). Women in their 30s also show elevated never-married shares compared to prior generations. Recent surveys of younger adults (including late millennials/early Gen Z overlaps): A 2026 Children and Families Agency survey of unmarried people aged 15–39 found ~35% saying they have no intention of marrying (roughly matching those who say they eventually want to). Many prioritize hobbies, stable work, or other factors. Other polls of Gen Z show large shares open to never marrying.
Marriage remains strongly linked to childbearing in Japan (few births outside marriage), so delayed/declining marriage is a major driver of the low fertility rate. Married couples still tend to have around two children on average historically, but fewer people marry. Sexual experience / “virginity” and sexlessness. The documentary’s claims aligned with National Fertility Survey data from around that era:
Among never-married 18–34-year-olds, >40% reported no heterosexual intercourse in mid-2010s surveys.
Broader estimates for adults 18–39: ~25% heterosexual inexperience by 2015 (up from ~20–22% earlier), with ~10% of those in their 30s still inexperienced.
More recent surveys (including Japan Family Planning Association/JEX data into the 2020s) show continued high rates of inexperience among young unmarried adults (sometimes 40%+ range, with some younger male cohorts higher) and substantial sexlessness even among those with prior experience or in marriages. Sex outside marriage or regular sex remains less common than in many Western countries for cultural, economic, and social reasons. Economic insecurity (especially for men in non-regular employment), long work hours, housing costs, changing gender roles/expectations, and reduced interest in relationships are frequently cited factors.
In short: The film captured real, long-running demographic and social patterns. Japan’s fertility crisis has intensified since then (TFR now 1.14, births under 700k), never-married rates at older ages are high and rising, and low rates of dating/sex/marriage among younger adults persist as a major contributor. Government efforts (subsidies, matchmaking, etc.) have not reversed the trend so far. Data comes primarily from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare vital statistics, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research fertility surveys, and census figures.
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